risk factor
Dynamic COVID risk assessment accounting for community virus exposure from a spatial-temporal transmission model
COVID-19 pandemic has caused unprecedented negative impacts on our society, including further exposing inequity and disparity in public health. To study the impact of socioeconomic factors on COVID transmission, we first propose a spatial-temporal model to examine the socioeconomic heterogeneity and spatial correlation of COVID-19 transmission at the community level. Second, to assess the individual risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes after a positive diagnosis, we propose a dynamic, varying-coefficient model that integrates individual-level risk factors from electronic health records (EHRs) with community-level risk factors. The underlying neighborhood prevalence of infections (both symptomatic and pre-symptomatic) predicted from the previous spatial-temporal model is included in the individual risk assessment so as to better capture the background risk of virus exposure for each individual. We design a weighting scheme to mitigate multiple selection biases inherited in EHRs of COVID patients. We analyze COVID transmission data in New York City (NYC, the epicenter of the first surge in the United States) and EHRs from NYC hospitals, where time-varying effects of community risk factors and significant interactions between individual-and community-level risk factors are detected. By examining the socioeconomic disparity of infection risks and interaction among the risk factors, our methods can assist public health decision-making and facilitate better clinical management of COVID patients.
ClinNoteAgents: An LLM Multi-Agent System for Predicting and Interpreting Heart Failure 30-Day Readmission from Clinical Notes
Zhou, Rongjia, Li, Chengzhuo, Yang, Carl, Lu, Jiaying
Heart failure (HF) is one of the leading causes of rehospitalization among older adults in the United States. Although clinical notes contain rich, detailed patient information and make up a large portion of electronic health records (EHRs), they remain underutilized for HF readmission risk analysis. Traditional computational models for HF readmission often rely on expert-crafted rules, medical thesauri, and ontologies to interpret clinical notes, which are typically written under time pressure and may contain misspellings, abbreviations, and domain-specific jargon. We present ClinNoteAgents, an LLM-based multi-agent framework that transforms free-text clinical notes into (1) structured representations of clinical and social risk factors for association analysis and (2) clinician-style abstractions for HF 30-day readmission prediction. We evaluate ClinNoteAgents on 3,544 notes from 2,065 patients (readmission rate=35.16%), demonstrating strong performance in extracting risk factors from free-text, identifying key contributing factors, and predicting readmission risk. By reducing reliance on structured fields and minimizing manual annotation and model training, ClinNoteAgents provides a scalable and interpretable approach to note-based HF readmission risk modeling in data-limited healthcare systems.
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For the First Time, Mutations in a Single Gene Have Been Linked to Mental Illness
Research links variations in the gene GRIN2A to a higher risk of developing schizophrenia and other forms of mental illness. A team of physicians specializing in genetics and neurology discovered that mental illnesses such as schizophrenia are closely linked to mutations in the GRIN2A gene. The scientists mantain that identifying this genetic risk factor opens up the possibility of designing preventive therapies in the future. The GRIN2A gene regulates communication between neurons by producing the GluN2A protein. When functioning optimally, it promotes the transmission of electrical signals between nerve cells and facilitates essential processes such as learning, memory, language, and brain development.
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AssurAI: Experience with Constructing Korean Socio-cultural Datasets to Discover Potential Risks of Generative AI
Lim, Chae-Gyun, Han, Seung-Ho, Byun, EunYoung, Han, Jeongyun, Cho, Soohyun, Joo, Eojin, Kim, Heehyeon, Kim, Sieun, Lee, Juhoon, Lee, Hyunsoo, Lee, Dongkun, Hyeon, Jonghwan, Hwang, Yechan, Lee, Young-Jun, Lee, Kyeongryul, An, Minhyeong, Ahn, Hyunjun, Son, Jeongwoo, Park, Junho, Yoon, Donggyu, Kim, Taehyung, Kim, Jeemin, Choi, Dasom, Lee, Kwangyoung, Lim, Hyunseung, Jung, Yeohyun, Hong, Jongok, Nam, Sooyohn, Park, Joonyoung, Na, Sungmin, Choi, Yubin, Choi, Jeanne, Hong, Yoojin, Jang, Sueun, Seo, Youngseok, Park, Somin, Jo, Seoungung, Chae, Wonhye, Jo, Yeeun, Kim, Eunyoung, Whang, Joyce Jiyoung, Hong, HwaJung, Seering, Joseph, Lee, Uichin, Kim, Juho, Choi, Sunna, Ko, Seokyeon, Kim, Taeho, Kim, Kyunghoon, Ha, Myungsik, Lee, So Jung, Hwang, Jemin, Kwak, JoonHo, Choi, Ho-Jin
The rapid evolution of generative AI necessitates robust safety evaluations. However, current safety datasets are predominantly English-centric, failing to capture specific risks in non-English, socio-cultural contexts such as Korean, and are often limited to the text modality. To address this gap, we introduce AssurAI, a new quality-controlled Korean multimodal dataset for evaluating the safety of generative AI. First, we define a taxonomy of 35 distinct AI risk factors, adapted from established frameworks by a multidisciplinary expert group to cover both universal harms and relevance to the Korean socio-cultural context. Second, leveraging this taxonomy, we construct and release AssurAI, a large-scale Korean multimodal dataset comprising 11,480 instances across text, image, video, and audio. Third, we apply the rigorous quality control process used to ensure data integrity, featuring a two-phase construction (i.e., expert-led seeding and crowdsourced scaling), triple independent annotation, and an iterative expert red-teaming loop. Our pilot study validates AssurAI's effectiveness in assessing the safety of recent LLMs. We release AssurAI to the public to facilitate the development of safer and more reliable generative AI systems for the Korean community.
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- Information Technology > Artificial Intelligence > Natural Language > Large Language Model (1.00)
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Oversampling techniques for predicting COVID-19 patient length of stay
Farahany, Zachariah, Wu, Jiawei, Islam, K M Sajjadul, Madiraju, Praveen
Abstract--COVID-19 is a respiratory disease that caused a global pandemic in 2019. It is highly infectious and has the following symptoms: fever or chills, cough, shortness of breath, fatigue, muscle or body aches, headache, the new loss of taste or smell, sore throat, congestion or runny nose, nausea or vomiting, and diarrhea. These symptoms vary in severity; some people with many risk factors have been known to have lengthy hospital stays or die from the disease. In this paper, we analyze patients' electronic health records (EHR) to predict the severity of their COVID-19 infection using the length of stay (LOS) as our measurement of severity. This is an imbalanced classification problem, as many people have a shorter LOS rather than a longer one. T o combat this problem, we synthetically create alternate oversampled training data sets. Once we have this oversampled data, we run it through an Artificial Neural Network (ANN), which during training has its hyperparameters tuned by using bayesian optimization. We select the model with the best F1 score and then evaluate it and discuss it. COVID-19 is defined by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) as "a respiratory disease caused by SARS-CoV -2, a coronavirus discovered in 2019. The virus spreads mainly from person to person through respiratory droplets produced when an infected person coughs, sneezes, or talks" [1]. Furthermore, they add, "For people who have symptoms, illness can range from mild to severe. Adults 65 years and older and people of any age with underlying medical conditions are at higher risk for severe illness" [1].In 2019 this novel coronavirus was first detected. The highly infectious nature of this disease, combined with the respiratory nature of the infection, caused a pandemic. Along with being highly contagious, COVID-19 also has an extensive range of symptoms such as fever or chills, cough, shortness of breath, fatigue, muscle or body aches, headache, the new loss of taste or smell, sore throat, congestion or runny nose, nausea or vomiting, and diarrhea [2]. Along with a long list of symptoms, COVID-19 has many risk factors, which may increase the severity of the infection.
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A Method for Characterizing Disease Progression from Acute Kidney Injury to Chronic Kidney Disease
Fang, Yilu, Nestor, Jordan G., Ta, Casey N., Kneifati-Hayek, Jerard Z., Weng, Chunhua
Patients with acute kidney injury (AKI) are at high risk of developing chronic kidney disease (CKD), but identifying those at greatest risk remains challenging. We used electronic health record (EHR) data to dynamically track AKI patients' clinical evolution and characterize AKI-to-CKD progression. Post-AKI clinical states were identified by clustering patient vectors derived from longitudinal medical codes and creatinine measurements. Transition probabilities between states and progression to CKD were estimated using multi-state modeling. After identifying common post-AKI trajectories, CKD risk factors in AKI subpopulations were identified through survival analysis. Of 20,699 patients with AKI at admission, 3,491 (17%) developed CKD. We identified fifteen distinct post-AKI states, each with different probabilities of CKD development. Most patients (75%, n=15,607) remained in a single state or made only one transition during the study period. Both established (e.g., AKI severity, diabetes, hypertension, heart failure, liver disease) and novel CKD risk factors, with their impact varying across these clinical states. This study demonstrates a data-driven approach for identifying high-risk AKI patients, supporting the development of decision-support tools for early CKD detection and intervention.
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Joint Score-Threshold Optimization for Interpretable Risk Assessment Under Partial Supervision
Gankhanloo, Fardin, Springer, Emmett, Hoyer, Erik H., Young, Daniel L., Ghobadi, Kimia
Risk assessment tools in healthcare commonly employ point-based scoring systems that map patients to ordinal risk categories via thresholds. While electronic health record (EHR) data presents opportunities for data-driven optimization of these tools, two fundamental challenges impede standard supervised learning: (1) partial supervision arising from intervention-censored outcomes, where only extreme categories can be reliably labeled, and (2) asymmetric misclassification costs that increase with ordinal distance. We propose a mixed-integer programming (MIP) framework that jointly optimizes scoring weights and category thresholds under these constraints. Our approach handles partial supervision through per-instance feasible label sets, incorporates asymmetric distance-aware objectives, and prevents middle-category collapse via minimum threshold gaps. We further develop a CSO relaxation using softplus losses that preserves the ordinal structure while enabling efficient optimization. The framework supports governance constraints including sign restrictions, sparsity, and minimal modifications to incumbent tools, ensuring practical deployability in clinical workflows.
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Explainable AI for Infection Prevention and Control: Modeling CPE Acquisition and Patient Outcomes in an Irish Hospital with Transformers
Pham, Minh-Khoi, Mai, Tai Tan, Crane, Martin, Brennan, Rob, Ward, Marie E., Geary, Una, Byrne, Declan, Connell, Brian O, Bergin, Colm, Creagh, Donncha, McDonald, Nick, Bezbradica, Marija
Carbapenemase-Producing Enterobacteriace poses a critical concern for infection prevention and control in hospitals. However, predictive modeling of previously highlighted CPE-associated risks such as readmission, mortality, and extended length of stay (LOS) remains underexplored, particularly with modern deep learning approaches. This study introduces an eXplainable AI modeling framework to investigate CPE impact on patient outcomes from Electronic Medical Records data of an Irish hospital. We analyzed an inpatient dataset from an Irish acute hospital, incorporating diagnostic codes, ward transitions, patient demographics, infection-related variables and contact network features. Several Transformer-based architectures were benchmarked alongside traditional machine learning models. Clinical outcomes were predicted, and XAI techniques were applied to interpret model decisions. Our framework successfully demonstrated the utility of Transformer-based models, with TabTransformer consistently outperforming baselines across multiple clinical prediction tasks, especially for CPE acquisition (AUROC and sensitivity). We found infection-related features, including historical hospital exposure, admission context, and network centrality measures, to be highly influential in predicting patient outcomes and CPE acquisition risk. Explainability analyses revealed that features like "Area of Residence", "Admission Ward" and prior admissions are key risk factors. Network variables like "Ward PageRank" also ranked highly, reflecting the potential value of structural exposure information. This study presents a robust and explainable AI framework for analyzing complex EMR data to identify key risk factors and predict CPE-related outcomes. Our findings underscore the superior performance of the Transformer models and highlight the importance of diverse clinical and network features.
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SHERLOCK: Towards Dynamic Knowledge Adaptation in LLM-enhanced E-commerce Risk Management
Lu, Nan, Hu, Yurong, Fang, Jiaquan, Liu, Yan, Dong, Rui, Wang, Yiming, Lin, Rui, Xu, Shaoyi
The growth of the e-commerce industry has intensified the adversarial dynamics between shadow economy actors and risk management teams. Companies often conduct risk investigations into suspicious cases to identify emerging fraud patterns, thereby enhancing both preemptive risk prevention and post-hoc governance. However, the sheer volume of case analyses imposes a substantial workload on risk management analysts, as each case requires the integration of long-term expert experience and meticulous scrutiny across multiple risk dimensions. Additionally, individual disparities among analysts hinder the establishment of uniform and high-standard workflows. To address these challenges, we propose the SHERLOCK framework, which leverages the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs) to assist analysts in risk investigations. Our approach consists of three primary components: (1) extracting risk management knowledge from multi-modal data and constructing a domain knowledge base (KB), (2) building an intelligent platform guided by the data flywheel paradigm that integrates daily operations, expert annotations, and model evaluations, with iteratively fine-tuning for preference alignment, and (3) introducing a Reflect & Refine (R&R) module that collaborates with the domain KB to establish a rapid response mechanism for evolving risk patterns. Experiments conducted on the real-world transaction dataset from JD dot com demonstrate that our method significantly improves the precision of both factual alignment and risk localization within the LLM analysis results. Deployment of the SHERLOCK-based LLM system on JD dot com has substantially enhanced the efficiency of case investigation workflows for risk managers.
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